This was a much needed and informative article regarding vaccinations vs Delta. So much more of this and less of every other anecdotal thing forever. One would imagine after 2 months we'd be getting the same from UK's NHS, or USA's CDC, but alas they're keeping their infected vaccinated metrics close to the chest for political reasons, which hurts everyone. I do hope you update these numbers with your ongoing conclusions. Great work!
Measuring the number of total sick people of vaccinated versus the unvaccinated is a rather inaccurate and misleading metric, isn't it? We shouldn't be surprised if the majority of sick people are vaccinated- the very vast majority of people there are vaccinated. It would be like saying that most are the Israelis with recent heart attacks, or even divorces, are vaccinated. Does that indicate anything?
I would think you should be showing the rate of vaccinated Delta infections RELATIVE to unvaccinated. Looking forward, and thanks for a very informative article.
I beg to differ. The vaccine is not supposed to prevent heart attacks, but it's supposed to stop COVID infections. We felt post-covid thanks to the vaccine, and this analysis shows the protection against the Delta variant is not effective enough in a (partially) vaccinated population.
The analysis you are suggesting is important for answering another question, and has been done and reported in this blog: that's how the protection the vaccine gives was calculated. The chances of infection given that you are vaccinated are reported here as 64% lower, and the chances of severe disease is 93% lower. This is estimated given the proportions you asked for rather than total numbers.
I wouldn't say it's inaccurate and misleading. At least the "raw" data. What's important is how we read that information / data.
If we have, say, 100 vaccinated people and 50 un-vaccinated people, and 25 of those vaccinated people get Covid and 25 of those un-vaccinated people too, we shouldn't say that they are 50 - 50, but that 25 % of vaccinated people get it against 50 % of un-vaccinated people.
So I don't think the metric is inaccurate, but how he wrote about it, saying simply that there most vaccs agains un-vaccs getting it, when he said «On 13 July, 399 vaccinated people tested positive for the virus compared to 320 unvaccinated people. And yesterday wasn’t special: that’s pretty much the pattern», but not highlighting that «90% of over-50s are vaccinated with two doses of the Pfizer vaccine».
I'm not sure about what the numbers are with those statistics (that's why I simplified with that example with 200 people), but it's clear that, in percentage terms, there are way more un-vaccinated people among the sick.
{Assume population of 100,000: 10,000 vaccinated, 90,000 unvaccinated. ER has 1000 cases: 800 unvaccinated, 200 vaccinated. Do the math. 200/10,000 of the vaccinated in the ER. 800/90,000 of the unvaccinated in the ER. I like you so I did the math for you.} I am not doing the math for Aarieh Kovler / Substack; I am writing them off as a weany reporter collecting a paycheck and substack is trying to make a buck.
OF COURSE there are more vaccinated people with Covid because THERE ARE MORE OF THEM!! 399/5.6 million fully vaccinated people. Don't look at the number of hospitalizations, look at the percent of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated who are hospitalized or have severe illness. The denominator of the vaccinated is larger. Basic math.
I love reading your reporting on COVID-19. Israel is unique with vaccine compliance, and is so valuable to see results of Delta variant. I wish we could hope for compliance in USA! Many thanks from a University Educated Registered Nurse.🏆
But, there is a certain set of parameters completely missing. Namely, you talk about vaccinated versus unvaccinated. However, that may be irrelevant. Health conditions before contracting the virus is probably more important. For example, recovered persons are most likely healthy which consequently gives them better defense. Do such data not exist?
Thanks for the article. But you should update the graphs every once in a while to see if the conclusion is still valid. When looking at the last two figures the difference between now (August 21) and then (Jan 21) has become less significant as when compared to July 21. Currently there are roughly 2600 cases (7 day average) compared to the 8200 back in January. That is not still one tenth as it used to be in July. It has diminished to practically a third. When looking at absolute numbers it is 3000 daily cases vs. 10000 cases. Therefore it would be most interesting to see whether the proportions of unvaccinated vs. vaccinated people has changed and who is catching COVID these days. Especially in terms of age distribution.
Great article! Looking forward for the part II analysis with the most recent data. It would be highly interesting to compare the current total cases/severe cases ratio with January data. Thank you!
Hi, very interesting article. Could you give me the source of your first graph, the one showing percentages of vaccinated by age ranges in Israel? Thank you very much in advance
Every vaccinated person has to read this and hope to god it cant possibly mean they made abad choice. Every not vaccinated person looks at this and says- yea, i KNOW I made the right choice. 100% certain of some effect from vacinne already failing and may actually make things worse in the long haul because of the 81 severely ill in the hospital, 90.12% have been vaccinated while only 85% of all adults have been. So if it goes bad, being vaccinated makes you more likely to get the worst-ever.
This was a much needed and informative article regarding vaccinations vs Delta. So much more of this and less of every other anecdotal thing forever. One would imagine after 2 months we'd be getting the same from UK's NHS, or USA's CDC, but alas they're keeping their infected vaccinated metrics close to the chest for political reasons, which hurts everyone. I do hope you update these numbers with your ongoing conclusions. Great work!
Great presentation, thank you for your hard work! Could you please share the graphic sources?
Measuring the number of total sick people of vaccinated versus the unvaccinated is a rather inaccurate and misleading metric, isn't it? We shouldn't be surprised if the majority of sick people are vaccinated- the very vast majority of people there are vaccinated. It would be like saying that most are the Israelis with recent heart attacks, or even divorces, are vaccinated. Does that indicate anything?
I would think you should be showing the rate of vaccinated Delta infections RELATIVE to unvaccinated. Looking forward, and thanks for a very informative article.
I beg to differ. The vaccine is not supposed to prevent heart attacks, but it's supposed to stop COVID infections. We felt post-covid thanks to the vaccine, and this analysis shows the protection against the Delta variant is not effective enough in a (partially) vaccinated population.
The analysis you are suggesting is important for answering another question, and has been done and reported in this blog: that's how the protection the vaccine gives was calculated. The chances of infection given that you are vaccinated are reported here as 64% lower, and the chances of severe disease is 93% lower. This is estimated given the proportions you asked for rather than total numbers.
In highly vaccinated areas, the hospitals should be empty. Instead, they have the highest cases.
Wasn't the "sell" of these vaccinations to eradicate the virus, to get back to normal, to not get so sick you'd be hospitalized?
I wouldn't say it's inaccurate and misleading. At least the "raw" data. What's important is how we read that information / data.
If we have, say, 100 vaccinated people and 50 un-vaccinated people, and 25 of those vaccinated people get Covid and 25 of those un-vaccinated people too, we shouldn't say that they are 50 - 50, but that 25 % of vaccinated people get it against 50 % of un-vaccinated people.
So I don't think the metric is inaccurate, but how he wrote about it, saying simply that there most vaccs agains un-vaccs getting it, when he said «On 13 July, 399 vaccinated people tested positive for the virus compared to 320 unvaccinated people. And yesterday wasn’t special: that’s pretty much the pattern», but not highlighting that «90% of over-50s are vaccinated with two doses of the Pfizer vaccine».
I'm not sure about what the numbers are with those statistics (that's why I simplified with that example with 200 people), but it's clear that, in percentage terms, there are way more un-vaccinated people among the sick.
Agreed, that's all I was saying.
{Assume population of 100,000: 10,000 vaccinated, 90,000 unvaccinated. ER has 1000 cases: 800 unvaccinated, 200 vaccinated. Do the math. 200/10,000 of the vaccinated in the ER. 800/90,000 of the unvaccinated in the ER. I like you so I did the math for you.} I am not doing the math for Aarieh Kovler / Substack; I am writing them off as a weany reporter collecting a paycheck and substack is trying to make a buck.
It's the other way around... Close to 90% of population is vaccinated
OF COURSE there are more vaccinated people with Covid because THERE ARE MORE OF THEM!! 399/5.6 million fully vaccinated people. Don't look at the number of hospitalizations, look at the percent of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated who are hospitalized or have severe illness. The denominator of the vaccinated is larger. Basic math.
When are your graphs updated? We are in September now!
I love reading your reporting on COVID-19. Israel is unique with vaccine compliance, and is so valuable to see results of Delta variant. I wish we could hope for compliance in USA! Many thanks from a University Educated Registered Nurse.🏆
Please share the sources for the graphs and the statistics shared
Clearly the vaccine was developed based on the earlier strains Not the mutating Delta strain???
Therefore not effective NOW?
Yes, very interesting! And yes, updates please.
But, there is a certain set of parameters completely missing. Namely, you talk about vaccinated versus unvaccinated. However, that may be irrelevant. Health conditions before contracting the virus is probably more important. For example, recovered persons are most likely healthy which consequently gives them better defense. Do such data not exist?
Thanks for the article. But you should update the graphs every once in a while to see if the conclusion is still valid. When looking at the last two figures the difference between now (August 21) and then (Jan 21) has become less significant as when compared to July 21. Currently there are roughly 2600 cases (7 day average) compared to the 8200 back in January. That is not still one tenth as it used to be in July. It has diminished to practically a third. When looking at absolute numbers it is 3000 daily cases vs. 10000 cases. Therefore it would be most interesting to see whether the proportions of unvaccinated vs. vaccinated people has changed and who is catching COVID these days. Especially in terms of age distribution.
Great article! Looking forward for the part II analysis with the most recent data. It would be highly interesting to compare the current total cases/severe cases ratio with January data. Thank you!
Are vaccinated tourists allowed into Israel?
Hi, very interesting article. Could you give me the source of your first graph, the one showing percentages of vaccinated by age ranges in Israel? Thank you very much in advance
Would you be so kind as to link to source of your graphs from Israeli Health Ministry? Website is very difficult to search in English.
Every vaccinated person has to read this and hope to god it cant possibly mean they made abad choice. Every not vaccinated person looks at this and says- yea, i KNOW I made the right choice. 100% certain of some effect from vacinne already failing and may actually make things worse in the long haul because of the 81 severely ill in the hospital, 90.12% have been vaccinated while only 85% of all adults have been. So if it goes bad, being vaccinated makes you more likely to get the worst-ever.