Welcome to the Hat Tip

Reporting, analysis and predictions about current affairs, especially US, UK, Israel. Politics, extremism and a little science

Welcome to The Hat Tip.

I’ve always been interested in politics, extremism and conspiracy theories.

I wrote my undergraduate dissertation on conspiracy theories in 2004, when 9/11 conspiracies were everywhere but the academic literature hadn’t yet caught up. Before social networks, I trawled forums used by the Far Right, the Far Left and the Global Jihad to both understand how they think, but also how they influence more mainstream political actors.

Predicting the future is hard work, but that was a part of my job for a few years; monitoring political trends from grassroots to government, understanding what different actors wanted, and preparing for risks and contingencies. At times, that meant a lot of wasted work. Every now and again I got lucky, and was able to help effect real change.

Another time I got “lucky” was back in December, when I shouted into the void about the coming Capitol insurrection. But I’d rather have been wrong. The point of predicting what’s going to happen is to help prevent or change it.

If I can sometimes see a little further, it’s because I am standing on the shoulders of giants.

The Hat Tip will cover politics, public policy, political extremism and a little science and technology too. I’ll try to provide original reporting, analysis, data (expect the occasional graph!) and predictions.

I’m aiming for one newsletter a week, with the occasional extra one when something big happens or just because I feel like it.

Eventually, I’d like to build a community too. But maybe that’s a bit too ambitious. We’ll see.

Come join me on this journey!

Sign up now so you don’t miss the first issue.

In the meantime, tell your friends!